Monday, June 8, 2009

Nouriel Roubini - No Green Shoots, But Plenty Of Yellow Weeds

Economist and NYU Professor Nouriel Roubini at the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum warns that "we are still in the middle of a severe crisis , the recession may last another 6 to 10 months". Roubini sees a longer period of recession, large increase in public debt , that have to be paid for, for at least a couple of year to come. He foresees Inflation tax increasing, financial imbalances not resolved the risk of a double U shaped recession, the oil prices going to hundred dollars a barrel , rising budget deficit, continuous monetization of the budget deficit. Roubini says we are not out of the tunnel, it is still early to redesign the architecture and the market discipline, the rating agencies have conflicts of interests and could not be relied on ... every single pillar of Basel 2 has already failed we are now thinking of Basel 3. He says all institutions should go under the same regulatory umbrella either financial bank commercial bank hedge fund investment bank insurance company, the loopholes are still there, the shadowy banking system has led to the troubles we are in now....the challenge is very big and there is a fundamental problem with corporate governance...

The truth is that the banks have been engaging in creative accounting. The numbers being reported are not what they seem, and that is being said by many market analysts.